{"id":6551,"date":"2020-08-05T10:17:58","date_gmt":"2020-08-05T09:17:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brainlabsdigital.com\/?p=6551"},"modified":"2025-06-20T20:33:32","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T20:33:32","slug":"organic-traffic-down-not-what-you-think","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brainlabsdigital.com\/organic-traffic-down-not-what-you-think\/","title":{"rendered":"Organic traffic down YoY? It\u2019s not what you think\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It\u2019s been about 18 months now since ITP 2.1 was announced \u2013and over a year since your analytics (or your clients\u2019!) will have really started feeling the impact. Here at Brainlabs, some of our clients have seen a 20% hit in <strong>total<\/strong> reported organic traffic due to this Safari update, and often it\u2019s been the last thing anyone has looked to to explain that drop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this post I\u2019m going to explain why ITP 2.1 impacts reported organic traffic (and indeed other channels) in Google Analytics (GA), how you can calculate the impact on your site, and share some real world figures from our clients so you can see how you compare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Wait, what is ITP 2.1?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Oh yeah, sorry \u2013 perhaps we should have a quick refresher first. ITP, or Intelligent Tracking Prevention, is a series of updates to Apple\u2019s Safari browser, designed to <a href=\"https:\/\/econsultancy.com\/how-to-measure-marketing-without-cookie-tracking\/\">restrict web tracking and particularly cross-site tracking technologies<\/a> that users might be uncomfortable with. The Safari browser is a lot more prevalent than you might think (iPhone traffic!), and in any case Chrome and Firefox are generally following in Apple\u2019s slipstream on this, so it\u2019s well worth paying attention to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ITP 2.1 <a href=\"https:\/\/webkit.org\/blog\/8613\/intelligent-tracking-prevention-2-1\/\">update<\/a> should be of particular interest to you, as it limited 1st party JavaScript cookies to a 7-day timeout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Surely, cookies expiring doesn\u2019t mean less organic traffic?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Kinda. It\u2019s true that this change will have no impact on what you see in, for example, Google Search Console.* Your users have not changed their behaviour, but the way that behaviour&nbsp; appears in your analytics data is changing &#8211; in a way that is probably less favourable for your KPIs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, it\u2019s a different story for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brainlabsdigital.com\/blog\/google-tag-manager-vs-google-analytics-what-they-do-and-how-theyre-different\/\">Google Analytics (and similar platforms)<\/a>, because of their slightly opaque treatment of direct traffic. Google Analytics default reports and API data all use something called <em>Last Non-Direct<\/em> attribution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you arrive at a site as genuinely direct traffic, but you had a recent, previous session through another channel (e.g. organic), the new direct session is attributed to the previous channel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s a diagram showing what that might look like:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Example of last-non-direct attribution journey<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/m0OAqjQj6IZX9AFdyaLJS8IEv0LHs2vqt7B5ckx9xsaro8a0MgaWX-yqkXawS0BF3G0XTua6Hn2BXVh-QriKtBTI-f22F5ny-6bk5yWopcX24yiRNHlH_fY74vJ4Mcvt9jFNqdlO\" alt=\"Example attribution journey with different sessions\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><br><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Cheeky, right? There\u2019s some legitimate reasons for this \u2013 a lot of supposedly \u201cdirect\u201d sessions are arguably misattributed. There are scenarios in which a supposedly direct session is actually more of a continuation of a previous session (particularly if it\u2019s on the same day), so you can see why Google might want to attribute them to a previous channel. Anyway, let\u2019s not get into the ethics and conspiracy theories right now \u2013 the point is that Google Analytics is using some seriously long duration cookies to attribute more sessions to organic, and indeed PPC and other channels, than it would do otherwise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The default campaign timeout in Google Analytics is 6 months (this can be altered in property settings, but hardly anyone does so). Let\u2019s compare that with the 7-day timeout figure I mentioned earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cookie expirations<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"930\" height=\"366\" src=\"https:\/\/brainlabdev.wpenginepowered.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/unnamed-8-1.png\" alt=\"cookie expiration 6 months with default Google Analytics vs 7 days with ITP\" class=\"wp-image-6554\" style=\"width:581px;height:228px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brainlabsdigital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/unnamed-8-1.png 930w, https:\/\/www.brainlabsdigital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/unnamed-8-1-300x118.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brainlabsdigital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/unnamed-8-1-768x302.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 930px) 100vw, 930px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>So in a scenario where I discover a site via organic, then return 8 days later via direct:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A couple of years ago, my second session is organic<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In 2020, it\u2019s direct<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s actually another metric this has a big impact on \u2013 and that\u2019s \u201creturning users\u201d. Cookies expiring earlier means that more users will appear to Google Analytics as \u201cnew\u201d. Here\u2019s a chart showing how &amp; when pre-ITP-2.1 versions of Safari faded out of one of our clients\u2019 traffic during 2019:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pre-ITP 2.1 Safari versions<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/Y7_rABxaFgrm3cZMR32ICXagyz683inck61atl9DlOydi1W8HZhh-BxIXuqXGvri7LGkqijOawgpUai5UTmgZQKgW-ABXT1tJP0lFHvRkMm336sZX8xhe_z0uxTDTsXcGlg8B3Z6\" alt=\"graph showing decrease in traffic after ITP 2.1\" style=\"width:684px;height:164px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><br><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And here\u2019s how that impacted their rate of <em>reported<\/em> new\/returning users across <em>all<\/em> browsers \u2013 notice how the Safari change is easily noticeable in the total data:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Breakdown of new\/returning users during 2019 (all browsers)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh3.googleusercontent.com\/LM-tICZohaDjkQO1Pz7jJOzC-ytwpZYAwXH1YuAr6MBrGh_o2OQnrE5thGfsJMPVUBRxaeBP8Q8SG0Mt6cG3vr2b4JwHeOFHwiep9yedYs2zRIsoAgWPQTKQRVMHwIlNsnCRqRg1\" alt=\"graph showing slow increase in new visitors vs decrease in returning visitors\" style=\"width:688px;height:166px\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>*Or at least, no immediate impact &#8211; perhaps if your branded display campaigns are affected then that will have some long term impact on branded search volume etc. etc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Great \u2013 so how about my reported organic\/PPC\/social traffic?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>So, to recap: the impact on, for example, your reported organic traffic, is going to come about because direct sessions from users with a previous organic session will no longer be recategorised as organic, unless there was less than 7 days in-between.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The extent to which you\u2019ll be underreporting vs historic traffic basically depends on two key variables:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>How much Safari traffic do you get?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How many of your visitors are returning, but after >7 days?\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>(The real question here is how many are returning via direct but are not reported as such, but you probably don\u2019t know that off the top of your head!)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Happily, you can get a precise estimate of the combined impact out of GA itself. The question you need to ask is <strong>\u201cWhat\u2019s the difference between 6-month and 7-day lookback window last non-direct attribution models?\u201d<\/strong>.&nbsp; Simple enough \u2013 there\u2019s even a model comparison tool in the interface:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh6.googleusercontent.com\/OclJPRThX4cN-IGt7ic0hn4PEaG5SqBk5rqc0cVmOXvdJHYLhkfhJDHKha3ujcZl-7eRDHEQxUU6rGj2ABie43HhjCDREs8Yel0bNIVcog2D99bWuRnHIa4u9cZljJOhXAUrkkNn\" alt=\"\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><br><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, there\u2019s two key problems with this method:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>To get an idea of the difference you should expect, you\u2019ll actually need to go back to <strong>March 2019 or earlier data<\/strong> \u2013 anything more recent already will be reflecting many returning Safari users as \u201cnew\u201d, so isn\u2019t useful to us.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The model comparison tool has a maximum lookback window of 90 days, not 6 months, so we need to compare a 7-day lookback in the tool with default reports for the same time period.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>So, here\u2019s an example of the two reports we\u2019d compare:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">March 2019 default channel grouping report<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh5.googleusercontent.com\/8tT2v5KC663Jp6HjHrWqwWj6V_YlzfPt6T2xj2Ve3gu5PF7tbt83cl9NudkK3mJ3Jz0XyW_kMjaApoSlNK74d5Kb12E0Sa2GLiYLmLJflyQ49Fo8nK1Z9GdwcX1PkKjxN-gZknuA\" alt=\"March 2019 default channel grouping report number for organic SEO\" style=\"width:679px;height:193px\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><br>Model comparison tool Last Non-Direct, 7-day lookback<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh6.googleusercontent.com\/Dzc9b7Cihzy07U9jKHhrrqneKSCE5TmLY_TsiLxg7jI_JM1WEglJLNvOF5L3vDkJA1jPknT6xGbWAg4A_Lgo1B16odDhXRnno5w7BKN09om_H1HHko92rgw0BRo9xg2U-kTYrGTK\" alt=\"Last Non-Direct, 7-day lookback\" style=\"width:521px;height:356px\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>And then we need to know the Safari enquiry % for this period (55% in the above example).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So bringing all that together:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Organic enquiries are at 4,165 vs. 4,671 <strong>(-11%)<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Assuming Safari users are a representative sample, this means that with this change they\u2019d report 11% fewer organic enquiries<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>55% of the traffic is from Safari<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>So assuming that Safari users are a representative sample of the whole, we can So we can estimate that <strong>55% of our 11% drop will have been felt on the site<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>55% of -11% is -6% (-0.11*0.55)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>6% underreporting of organic enquiries vs. early 2019<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s some more examples from our client base, with Excel-ready formulas:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table is-style-stripes\"><table><thead><tr><th><\/th><th><strong>Organic conversions&nbsp; from period in early 2019 (model comparison tool)<\/strong><\/th><th><strong>Organic conversions from same period in early 2019 (default report)<\/strong><\/th><th><strong>% change<\/strong><\/th><th><strong>% of conversions from Safari<\/strong><\/th><th><strong>Estimated underreporting of organic in 2020 vs. early 2019<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"has-inline-color has-secondary-color\"><strong><em>Formula<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/td><td><em>X<\/em><\/td><td><em>Y<\/em><\/td><td><em>(X-Y)\/X<\/em><\/td><td><em>Z<\/em><\/td><td><em>Z*(X-Y)\/X<\/em><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Cosmetic treatment<\/strong><\/td><td>4165<\/td><td>4671<\/td><td>-11%<\/td><td>55%<\/td><td>-6%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>HR software<\/strong><\/td><td>3729<\/td><td>3921<\/td><td>-5%<\/td><td>28%<\/td><td>-1.3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Ecom<\/strong><\/td><td>56296<\/td><td>90188<\/td><td>-38%<\/td><td>44%<\/td><td>-17%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As you can see, there\u2019s a huge range there, so I strongly recommend you work this out yourself \u2013 but when you do, it might well bail you out of some awkward KPI conversations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just to reiterate \u2013 this is based on the assumption that Safari users are representative of the whole. I\u2019ve had to do this because the model comparison tool doesn\u2019t allow browser segmentation, but I don\u2019t think it\u2019s a completely ridiculous assumption as these things go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Can\/should I evade this change?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>My view is that adjusting for this in your KPIs is the appropriate response, not attempting workarounds for browser\u2019s capabilities, and that\u2019s the conversation I\u2019m having with clients that track long-term organic conversions (or sessions!) and have seen a big impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Attempting workarounds not only locks you into a potentially gruelling arms race, but also raises serious ethical questions about defying user expectations. That, however, is a post for another day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What next?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, it\u2019s likely other major browsers will follow suit. Probably Firefox first, although that\u2019s been on the cards for <a href=\"https:\/\/groups.google.com\/forum\/m\/#!topic\/mozilla.dev.platform\/lECBPeiGTy4\">quite a while<\/a> at this point. I recommend the site <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cookiestatus.com\/\">cookiestatus.com<\/a> to follow this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"434\" src=\"https:\/\/brainlabdev.wpenginepowered.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/unnamed-7-1-1-1024x434.png\" alt=\"Graph of state of first party cookies per browser\" class=\"wp-image-6553\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brainlabsdigital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/unnamed-7-1-1-1024x434.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.brainlabsdigital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/unnamed-7-1-1-300x127.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brainlabsdigital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/unnamed-7-1-1-768x326.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brainlabsdigital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/unnamed-7-1-1.png 1308w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Competition<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m keen to see the most extreme ITP 2.1 organic traffic impacts in the wild. Winner gets, er\u2026 a Retweet?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If your organic traffic has been going down for the last 18 months, there\u2019s lots of possible reasons. But a big one you\u2019re probably missing is ITP 2.1.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":6612,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[169,171],"class_list":["post-6551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-seo","tag-google-analytics","tag-itp","post_format-post-format-image"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How to calculate ITP 2.1 impact on organic &amp; PPC traffic - Brainlabs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"If your organic traffic has been going down for the last 18 months, there\u2019s lots of possible reasons. 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